The bad news for Brazilian soy in the dispute for the largest market in the world
A strong opponent for Soy Brazilian is establishing space in the Marketplace Chinese. The production of the Gulf of the United States started to compete with the Brazilian production, arriving, in a certain period, to present a lower price, and, therefore, more attractive to China – the largest soy importer in the world. Ultimately, if the trend continues, soybean prices in Brazil will have to become more competitive, that is, with lower prices.
According to an analysis by the consultancy S&P Global, soy Brazilian it is still the most competitive option, due to the wide offer, for shipments to China in early July. However, the concern for producers Brazilians will be with shipments from the middle of next month and in August, as the US soybean crop is coming out cheaper, according to previous negotiations. a load of US gulf in relation to July-August it was negotiated at the equivalent of 333 cents per bushel (about 27 kg), while in Brazil the offer in the period is being negotiated at 335 cents/bu, at approximate values.
The data contrasts with the recent trend. According to the General Administration of Customs, China received 6.3 million tons of oilseeds from Brazil in April alone, an increase of 120% compared to March 2022. However, on Friday, the 10th, the Department of US Agriculture has lowered its inventory outlook for the 2022/23 crop – from 310 million to 280 million – given strong demand for North American exports.