On average, 350,000 families enter the Auxílio Brasil queue per month
Technicians do not guarantee that PEC will finish the queue by the end of the year, putting pressure on the government on the eve of the election
The Auxílio Brasil waiting list has increased in recent months at a faster pace than in previous years. Since April, 350,000 families in poverty or extreme poverty have their registration approved per month and are waiting to enter the program.
Despite the billions of reais released via the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) to eliminate the queue in August, government technicians say it is not possible to guarantee that everyone will be served by the end of the year, as this depends on how the demand for the benefit will be. In the next months.
In 2019, for example, this average was 200,000 families. The more intense flow should generate pressure on the government on the eve of the election.
For specialists, the increase in the queue is a reflection of the increase in poverty and the interest of low-income families who received emergency aid and want to continue to receive some benefit in the face of impoverishment and inflation.
With an eye on re-election, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) obtained authorization from Congress for a package that creates and increases social benefits. One of the measures increased the minimum amount received per family in Auxílio Brasil from R$400 to R$600, in addition to promising to eliminate the waiting list.
With this, the government expects to serve 20.2 million families as of August – around 2 million more than currently.
But between January and May (the most up-to-date data), around 2.5 million families signed up for the Single Registry – the gateway to social programs, the main one being Auxílio Brasil.
There is, therefore, little scope to serve more than the number already calculated by the government.
The intention of the Ministry of Citizenship is to try to keep the queue zero until the end of the year, even if, for that, it needs more money for the program. However, this plan depends on space in the Budget and on the behavior of demand for Auxílio Brasil in the second half of the year.
To receive the benefit, the citizen must be registered with CadÚnico and be within the poverty range (income between R$ 105.01 and R$ 210 per family member) or extreme poverty (income of up to R$ 105 per family member) ).
Enrollments in the Single Registry must be verified by the Ministry of Citizenship so that the family becomes eligible for Auxílio Brasil. If the program does not have enough funding for new beneficiaries, a waiting list is formed.
The Auxílio Brasil queue was empty in January and February. After that, the expansion of the program’s budget in relation to its predecessor – the Bolsa Família – became not enough to meet all those who asked for cash transfers.
The queue passed the 1.1 million mark in June. The growth rate of this list caught the attention of members of the Ministry of Citizenship.
In 2020 and 2021, the history of the queue was compromised because of emergency aid – when the government stopped analyzing registrations for Bolsa Família.
Even in the period when the Ministry of Citizenship resumed the accreditation of families to the program, the increase in the waiting list was not so pronounced.
as showed the Sheetthe number of families seeking to register to obtain the benefit —the so-called “queue of the queue”— has been growing.
Capitals like Rio de Janeiro and Salvador face great demand from people interested in making or updating CadÚnico data, with queues formed since the night before and people leaving without getting passwords.
In an articulation between the political and economic wing of the government, the Palácio do Planalto sponsored a PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) to overturn the fiscal and electoral legislation and allow the benefits to be boosted in the midst of the presidential race.
Bolsonaro’s package targets the electorate that is most in tune with former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), according to Datafolha. The PT achieves 59% of voting intentions among those receiving Auxílio Brasil, while Bolsonaro has 22%.
Lula’s advantage remains among the population that receives up to two minimum wages (R$ 2,424). He scores 56%, against 20% for Bolsonaro.
Lula and Bolsonaro have said that, if elected, they intend to keep the minimum value of the income transfer program at R$600. to create a permanent expense.
“The way the government wanted to expand the program shows the electoral intention. keep the value [do benefício em R$ 600 por mês] after the elections is the least that can be done in a society where poverty is endemic”, said Aninho Mucundramo Irachande, professor at the Institute of Political Science at UnB (University of Brasília).
For him, the effect of Bolsonaro’s social benefits package should be marginal. “The aid will only last for a short time. In addition, inflation is high and affects the pocketbook of the population”.