Ministry of Economic system predicts GDP progress between 1.4% and a pair of.9% in 2023

The Ministry of Economy projected this Wednesday (9) a GDP expansion in 2023 between 1.4% and 2.9%, above market forecasts for the first year of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva government, arguing that the growth economy is now higher than in the recent past.

The Ministry’s Economic Policy Secretariat stated in a report that the persistence of forecast errors for Brazilian GDP over the last three years may indicate a change in the growth trend, drawing attention to the positive short-term effects of an investment rate. taller.

The current official government projection points to a 2.5% increase in GDP next year, given that it was used in the budget proposal sent to Congress, which is questioned for allegedly overestimating government revenues.

Private economists estimate that the economy will grow by just 0.7% in 2023, according to the most recent Focus survey by the Central Bank.

The secretariat stated that traditional projection models are based on previous observations and therefore may not respond adequately to the structural changes that have been implemented since 2016.

Among the measures in this regard, the secretariat cited new legal frameworks for various sectors, which increased private investment.

For 2023, almost R$ 82 billion is expected in investments in partnerships and concessions, added the secretariat, an increase of 10% compared to what was planned for this year.

“The projection of this Secretariat assumes a deceleration of activity in emerging and developed countries throughout 2022, but does not include a recession in this and next year in the baseline scenario, which would significantly change expectations for the next year,” the document said.

(Reuters)