Minimal wage in 2023: what’s the anticipated quantity and the way a lot can the rise be
In 2022, the minimum wage is R$ 1,212. The 2023 Budget project foresees that the value will rise to R$ 1,302 from January, based on the correction of inflation only. However, during the campaign, then-candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) promised that, if elected, the national floor would be readjusted above inflation.
Lula’s team is still studying how this could be done. See below what has already been said and what is under discussion:
Values under discussion. So far, the expectation of the next government is to raise the minimum wage to R$1,320 in 2023. That is, an increase of R$108.
The Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) provides for a value of R$ 1,302 for 2023, which would represent an increase of R$ 90 compared to the current value.
Senator-elect Wellington Dias (PT-PI) said that it would be possible to readjust the value by 1.4% above the R$ 1,302 foreseen in the budget bill.
The impact of this increase on public accounts would be R$6.8 billion. The president-elect’s team is studying how it would be possible to reallocate Budget resources to guarantee the readjustment.
“The BRL 6.8 billion needed to support the increase in the minimum wage will leverage around BRL 53 billion in the economy, which is what this strategy represents. There are 38 million people who earn the minimum wage”, Dias told journalists on Wednesday (16).
The change in the rule must be made by Congress still in 2022 to take effect from January 1, 2023. The other possibility is that, after taking office, Lula negotiates with congressmen and the adjustment is made from May 1, Labor Day.
The Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the Ministry of Economy revised this Thursday (17) the estimate for the INPC (National Consumer Price Index), which is currently used to correct the minimum wage and other government expenses, to 6% in 2022, against 6.54% before. In 2023, the estimate increased from 4.86% to 4.9%. Considering a correction index of 6%, the minimum amount would rise to R$1,284, an increase of R$72.
What is the actual increase? This happens when the readjustment offers a gain above inflation. By applying a correction formula with a result greater than inflation, the payment starts to have a “real” readjustment.
According to the Federal Constitution, the government is obligated to correct the value of the minimum wage at least according to the accumulated inflation of the previous year, thus allowing workers to maintain their purchasing power.
Last readjustments. During the Lula, Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer governments, the value was corrected by a calculation that considered the previous year’s inflation plus GDP growth in the last two years with a projection for the following year. In 2011, Dilma transformed the rule into law and instituted a policy to increase the minimum wage until 2014. She repeated the initiative in 2015 and extended the measure until 2019.
Since 2019, there is no longer a law linking the GDP result to salary correction. The Bolsonaro government did not draft a bill to replace the previous law, which lost its validity. At the time, the assessment was that the real readjustment would harm public accounts, and the proposal for the minimum wage now considers only the readjustment for inflation as measured by the INPC (National Consumer Price Index).
The minimum wage is the lowest monthly remuneration that formal employers can pay to their employees, being a basic right, present in the Federal Constitution. The annual readjustments directly affect the purchasing power of Brazilians, especially the poorest and those who receive benefits linked to the national minimum floor, such as retirees and pensioners.