Market raises inflation forecast for 2023 for the 16th time in a row and lowers that for 2022

Market raises inflation forecast for 2023 for the 16th time in a row and lowers that for 2022

Analysts see an increase of 5.3% in the indicator next year. Bulletin Focus expectation for 2022 drops for the fourth consecutive week, but still above target

The agents of financial market raised the forecast of inflation to 2023 for the 16th week in a row, according to the Focus report published this Monday. The expectation is for inflation at 5.30%, above the 5.20% expected last week. Four weeks ago, it was 4.91%.

At this level, inflation would exceed the target set for the Central Bank (BC) for the third year in a row. The 2023 target is 3.25% with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points up or down.

On the other hand, estimates for this year’s inflation have been falling. In the last four weeks, it went from 8.27% to 7.3%. However, the index would still be above the target of 3.5% with a ceiling of 5% and a floor of 2%.

The Focus report is released weekly by the Central Bank (BC) and gathers the projections of economic indicators from the main banks and brokerages.

Expectations were impacted by the effects of the reduction in fuel taxes and the Electoral PEC, which tend to reduce inflation in the short term, but increase in the long term.

GDP

The projection for this year’s GDP was raised to 1.93%, the fourth week in a row. These expectations are also impacted by the Electoral PEC, which provides an immediate fiscal stimulus to the economy and tends to increase growth rates this year.

For 2023, GDP expectations ranged slightly from 0.50% to 0.49%. In the other year, 2024, it also dropped from 1.8% to 1.7%.

Source: O Globo Agency

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