Market raises forecast for inflation this 12 months to five.82%

Focus survey shows that Selic should end this year at the current 13.75%

Analysts consulted by the Central Bank raised expectations for inflation this year for the third week in a row and slightly adjusted the scenario for activity upwards, according to the Focus survey released by the municipality on Monday (14).

The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, pointed out that the expectation for the rise in the IPCA in 2022 has now reached 5.82%, from 5.63% before. For 2023 and 2024 there was no change in the calculations, with inflation calculated at 4.94% and 3.50% respectively.

The center of the official inflation target in 2022 is 3.5%, for 2023 it is 3.25% and for 2024 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points for more or less .

For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth estimate this year was adjusted upwards by 0.01 percentage point, reaching 2.77%, but for 2023 it remained at 0.70%.

The weekly survey of a hundred economists also showed that the basic interest rate (Selic) should end this year at the current 13.75% and the next year at 11.25%, unchanged.

Source: Leaf