IPCA for 2022 falls to five.79% and stays at 5.08% for 2023, tasks Focus

After three weeks of highs, the expectation for the IPCA – the official inflation index – for 2023 was maintained at 5.08% in the Focus Bulletin released this Monday, the 12th, even amid the sharp increase in expenses foreseen by the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) of the Transition. In the case of 2024, the projection continued at 3.50% for the seventh week in a row. A month ago, the medians were 4.94% and 3.50%, respectively.

In the case of 2022, in turn, the estimate for the rise in the IPCA cooled from 5.92% to 5.79%, from 5.82% four weeks earlier. Considering only the 39 estimates updated in the last 5 working days, the median for 2022 increased from 5.94% to 5.67%. For 2023, it dropped from 5.11% to 5.05%.

The forecast for 2025 rose from 3.00% to 3.02% after 73 weeks of stability.

The medians in Focus for official inflation in 2022 and 2023 are above the ceiling of the target for these horizons (5.0% and 4.75%, in that order), pointing to three years of non-compliance with the Central Bank’s main mandate . For 2024 and 2025, the market forecast is above the central target of 3.00%, but below the upper limit of 4.50%.

Currently, the focus of monetary policy is on the years 2023 and 2024. But the BC has emphasized the horizon of six quarters ahead, currently the second quarter of 2024.

At this month’s Copom, the Central Bank updated its projections for inflation with estimates of 6.0% in 2022, 5.0% in 2023 and 3.0% for 2024. The collegiate maintained the Selic at 13.75% per year for the third time in a row.

The expectation for smoothed inflation for the next 12 months increased from 5.28 to 5.24% – a month ago, it was at 5.15%.

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