‘GDP preview’: IBC-Br drops 0.11% in May compared to April, with adjustment, in the second consecutive fall

Despite the fall observed in the margin in the months of April and May, the Brazilian economy grew in the quarter ended in the fifth month of the year, according to the IBC-Br

THE Brazilian economy marked the second consecutive month of contraction in May, according to the Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br). The indicator dropped 0.11%, considering the series without seasonal effects. In April, the drop had been 0.64% (data revised today). With the disclosure this Thursday, 14, the BC returns to the original schedule of the IBC-Br, after delaying the disclosures of the previous two months due to the strike of the agency’s servers, which ended last week.

The fall observed in the IBC-Br from May to April, with adjustment, occurred despite the positive sectoral data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In the month, the highlight was the volume of services provided, (-0.1% in April to 0.9% in May), but industrial production also accelerated (0.2% to 0.3%), while extended retail lost steam, from 0.5% to 0.2%.

From April to May, the activity index calculated by the BC went from 142.13 points to 141.97 points in the seasonally adjusted series. This is the lowest level since February (141.62 points).

The result was below the median of financial market estimates, positive by 0.10%, in the Broadcast Projections survey, but within the range of forecasts, which ranged from a fall of 1.10% to a rise of 0.90%.

In the comparison between the months of May 2022 and 2021, there was a growth of 3.74% in the series without seasonal adjustments. This series recorded 142.90 points in the fifth month of the year, the best performance for the period since 2014 (147.14 points).

The May 2022 indicator compared to the same month of 2021 was also within the range projected by financial market analysts consulted by Projections Broadcast, who expected an advance of 2.10% to 4.70%, but below the positive median of 4 00%.

quarterly comparison

Despite the fall observed in the margin in the months of April and May, the Brazilian economy grew in the quarter ended in the fifth month of the year, according to the IBC-Br. The Central Bank informed that the indicator had a high of 0.92% in the comparison with the three previous months (December to February), according to the seasonally adjusted series.

In comparison with the same period in 2021, there was an increase of 2.83% in the series without seasonal adjustments. In 12 months through May, the IBC-Br shows an increase of 2.66%. Already in the accumulated of 2022, the result is positive in 2.08%.

Reviews

The Central Bank also revised IBC-Br data at the margin, in the series with adjustment. The April IBC-Br ranged from -0.44% to -0 64%. In the case of March data, the revision was up from 1.08% to 1.00%.

The February index changed from 0.71% to 0.88% expansion, while the January index changed from -0.43% to -0.60%. The December data was revised from an increase of 0.58% to 0.60%, while the November indicator changed from a growth of 0.87% to 0.88%.

Known as a kind of “BC preview” for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the IBC-Br serves more precisely as a parameter to assess the pace of the Brazilian economy over the months. The BC’s current projection for domestic activity in 2022 is for growth of 1.70%, according to the June Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI).

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