Frosts should impact coffee, grains and vegetables crop: more inflation?
Paraná should be the most punished state, but a cold front should also hit the Midwest and Southeast, affecting food production; carrot is up 180%
THE polar air mass that should hit the country this week should have a negative impact on the corn, coffee and sugarcane harvest, among other crops, with the occurrence of frosts in the main producing states. The forecast of temperatures around 3ºC in much of Paraná this week and high humidity make up the perfect scenario for the formation of ice. The phenomenon is also expected, although more sparsely, in São Paulo, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais.
“The market is agitated due to the expectation of a crop failure, especially for corn, coffee and sugarcane, but the frosts should also affect the planting of vegetables, tomato and carrotwhose prices are already on the rise”, says Celso Oliveira, an agrometeorologist at Climatempo.
THE carrot already accumulates increases of almost 180% in the last 12 months, according to the IBGE, followed by the tomato (108%) and vegetables (45%). In the case of pulses and tomatoes, the main villain of the price increase was the intense rains in January. When there is frost, the situation is even worse, as the plant often dies.
Frost damages corn crop
In relation to corn, the scenario is also worrying. A prolonged drought in the southern region at the beginning of the year frustrated the prospects of a record first grain harvest in states like Paraná. “Now, with the frosts, there should also be some impact on the second harvest”, says Oliveira. If adverse weather conditions are less intense in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, as forecast, grain crops in these locations should be less affected, helping to maintain the expectation of another promising year for corn and soybean production in the country. .
The result, however, should not be much higher than that obtained in 2021. The National Supply Company (Conab) works with estimates for a harvest of 270.2 million tons in the 2021/22 harvest, which represents an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous cycle.
More expensive coffee?
Conab already predicted a potential drop in the coffee crop of about 20% in Minas Gerais even before the arrival of the new cold front, due to bad weather in 2021, such as droughts last autumn and frosts in July. Even so, the recovery of coffee plantations, through investments by producers, should provide a production of 55.7 million bags, 16.8% more compared to last year.
Ground coffee was already pressured by the problems of the past harvest and the increase in costs in general, especially fuel and freight, which has been affecting food and consumer goods – in April, the readjustment accumulated over the last 12 months reached 65%.
Last month, the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) stood at 1.06%, the highest rate recorded in April since 1996. In the last 12 months, inflation hit 12.13%, the highest rate since October 2003. The 2% increase in food prices exerted the most significant impact on the April index. The increase in gasoline, ethanol and diesel oil has also been putting pressure on prices, impacting several production chains. Last week, consumers began to pay 3.2% more for diesel at gas stations, after the latest increase by Petrobras, reaching a record since the beginning of the National Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Agency’s historical series in 2004.