Focus: financial market forecasts inflation of 7.96% and GDP of 1.51% for 2022

Focus: financial market forecasts inflation of 7.96% and GDP of 1.51% for 2022

The estimate for the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year showed a slight drop compared to last week, falling from BRL 5.10 to BRL 5.09

The financial market predicts, for 2022, an inflation of 7.96%, a percentage projected for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) by the Focus Bulletin, released today (8) by the Central Bank. The number is below the projections presented a week ago (8.27%) and four weeks ago (8.89%).

The Focus Bulletin is a weekly publication that brings together the projection of around 100 market institutions for the country’s main economic indicators. For 2023, inflation expectations rose to 5.01%. It is the 13th consecutive high.

A week ago, the market predicted an inflation of 4.91% for the next year; and four weeks ago this percentage (IPCA) was 4.39%. For the years 2024 and 2025, inflation forecasts remained stable at 3.25% and 3%, respectively.

GDP

With regard to Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of goods and services produced in the country), this week’s Bulletin Focus increased the forecast for 2022 by 0.01 percentage point, from the 1.50% projected a week ago to 1 .51%. Four weeks ago, the calculation was at 1.2%.

Estimated GDP for 2023 was stable compared to last week: 0.5%. Four weeks ago, it was at 0.76%. For 2024, the estimate presented today is 1.81%. A week ago it was 1.8%; and four weeks ago, 2%. For 2025, the forecast for GDP has remained stable at 2% for 34 weeks.

Interest rate

The financial market also kept stable – at 13.75%, the same as forecast a week ago – the estimate for the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2022. Four weeks ago, the forecast was 13.25% for the closing of the year.

For 2023, the expectation is for a rate of 10.5%. A week ago, it was estimated that the year would end with a Selic rate of 10.25%; and four weeks ago, 9.75%. For 2024 and 2025, forecasts remain stable, compared to last week, at 7.75% and 7.5% per year, respectively.

Dollar

The estimate for the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year showed a slight drop compared to last week, falling from R$5.10 to R$5.09; and up, in comparison with the expectations presented four weeks ago, when the forecast was that the US currency would close the year with a quotation of R$5.05.

According to Focus, the dollar will close 2023 at R$5.10 – the same value as the previous week. Four weeks ago, the expectation was that the currency would present a price of R$ 5.05 at the end of next year.

The bulletin projects, for 2024, a price of R$ 5.07, slightly lower than the value estimated a week ago (R$ 5.08); and above the R$ 5.04 of the previous four weeks. For 2025, the estimate is for a price of BRL 5.15 for the US currency, the same value seen in last week’s bulletin. Four weeks ago, the projected price was R$5.10.

Source: Agência Brasil

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