Enterprise confidence reaches highest degree since August 2021, says FGV
- October 4, 2022
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The rise in business confidence in September was influenced both by improved perceptions of the current situation and expectations.
The Business Confidence Index (ICE), calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Economics at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV Ibre), rose 0.8 point in September to 101.5 points, the highest level since August 2021 (102.5 points ).
In quarterly moving averages, the indicator maintained its upward trend for the sixth consecutive month, with growth of 2.7 points in the third quarter of 2022, a less intense pace of increase than in the previous quarter, when the ICE had advanced 7.0 points.
“ICE approaches the level of August 2021, the highest achieved since the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic. This time with more positive assessments of the current situation and less favorable expectations for the following months, especially in the six-month horizon. The least optimistic sectors are Commerce and Industry. In the latter sector, there is a growing pessimism with the prospects for external demand – mainly in the Intermediate segment – a reflection of the strong slowdown in the world economy”, evaluates Aloisio Campelo Jr., superintendent of statistics at FGV Ibre, in a comment. On the report.
The rise in business confidence in September was influenced by improved perceptions of the current situation and expectations for the coming months. The Present Business Situation Index (ISA-E) rose 0.7 points to 102.0 points, the highest level since June 2013 (102.4 points). The Expectations Index (EI-E) rose 1.0 point to 100.1 points, the highest level since October 2021 (100.3 points).
The Business Confidence Index (ICE) consolidates the confidence indices of the four sectors covered by the Business Surveys produced by FGV IBRE: Industry, Services, Commerce and Construction.
In September, confidence rose in all the sectors that make up the ICE, except for Industry, which fell slightly, motivated by the worsening of the evaluations in relation to the current situation. The increase in confidence in the other sectors was influenced by the improvement in the two time horizons of the survey. Confidence in the Trade, Services and Construction sectors continues to surpass the neutral level of 100 points.
Business confidence grew in 61% of the 49 segments that make up the ICE, a spread similar to that observed in the previous month.