Brazilian GDP in the 1st quarter, “payroll” and Eletrobras offer: what to follow in the week
May ends and June begins in a week with an agenda full of relevant indicators, although with some holidays around the world. This Monday (30), the New York Stock Exchanges will be closed on account of Memorial Day, a date that honors US military officers killed in combat. On Thursday and Friday (June 2 and 3), there is a bank holiday in the United Kingdom, due to the Platinum Jubilee of Queen Elizabeth II, which completes 70 years of reign. Here in Brazil, it is precisely in the final stretch of the week, more precisely Thursday (2), that the most awaited data on the agenda comes out: the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2022. Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) , in its GDP Monitor, predicts growth of 1.5% in economic activity in the period, compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, driven by the services sector. Bradesco forecasts a slightly higher growth of 1.7%, compared to the previous quarter. “The result should be boosted especially by the advance of household consumption in the period”, say the bank’s analysts. Itaú, in turn, is betting on a growth of 1.3% between the quarters. In addition to GDP for the first three months of the year, the week’s agenda in Brazil also features other important indicators. On Monday, the Ministry of Labor should, finally, release the numbers of the General Register of Employed and Unemployed (Caged), referring to April, and which were initially scheduled for last Thursday. Analysts believe in a fourth consecutive month of advance in the creation of formal jobs. On Tuesday (31), the unemployment rate measured by the PNAD Contínua is released. Bradesco foresees a rate of 10.9%. On Thursday, the same day as the GDP release, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases its Producer Price Index (IPP) and on Friday (3) the industrial production for April is released. Itaú forecasts a drop of 0.2% compared to March, with a result “slightly positive in the manufacturing segment and negative numbers in mining and extractivism”. On Wednesday (1) the trade balance for the month of May will be released and Itaú projects a surplus of US$ 4.2 billion, less than half of the US$ 8.5 billion registered a year earlier. International agenda In the United States, the most awaited data comes out on Friday: the payroll, the official data of the American labor market. The Refinitiv consensus predicts the creation of 320,000 jobs in the United States (compared to 428,000 in April) and the unemployment rate to fall from 3.6% to 3.5%. “The disclosure of these indicators becomes even more relevant after the Fed has conditioned its monetary policy decisions to the performance of current data”, says an analysis by Bradesco. The day before, on Thursday, the ADP survey will be released, with the creation of vacancies in the private sector. On Wednesday, there’s the Jolts report, with the numbers of job vacancies and employee dismissals. Also on Wednesday is the Beige Book, a report on economic conditions in the Federal Reserve districts, the Central Bank of the United States. In Europe, pay attention to inflation data. The week starts with the consumer price index in Germany, which is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.5% in May, according to the Refinitiv consensus. On Tuesday, the consumer price index for the Euro Zone is released and on Wednesday, producer inflation in the economic bloc. Corporate News Next Friday (3) the reserve period for investors in the Eletrobras share offering begins. The operation could move up to R$35 billion and the government could result in a dilution of the government’s capital in the company, to less than 50%. The share price will be fixed the following week, on June 9.