Authorities cuts 2022 commerce surplus forecast to $55.4 billion from $81.5 billion

The Ministry of Economy revised downwards the projection for the result of the Brazilian trade balance at the end of 2022, in the face of a decline in expectations for exports and an increase in the estimate of imports.

According to the new forecast from the ministry, presented this Monday, the trade balance for the year should be positive by US$ 55.4 billion, compared to a projection of US$ 81.5 billion made in July.

With the review, if confirmed, the balance for the year will be 9.7% lower than that observed in 2021, when it was positive at US$ 61.4 billion, a record annual result.

The change in the calculation was driven by a cut in the projection for exports, now estimated by the government at US$ 330.3 billion, compared to a forecast of US$ 349.4 billion forecast in July.

On the import side, the projection went from US$ 268 billion to US$ 274.9 billion in the year.

In August, Reuters reported that the Ministry of Economy would revise its projection for the performance of the balance downwards, given the effects of the war in Ukraine, which caused an increase in the values ​​​​imported by the country.

In the month of September, the Brazilian trade balance registered a surplus of US$ 3.994 billion, the ministry said.

The data came below market expectations, which pointed to a positive balance of US$ 4.750 billion for the period, according to a Reuters survey.

Last month’s figure is the result of US$ 28.950 billion in exports and US$ 24.957 billion in imports.

(Reuters)