79% assume costs are increased now than they had been three months in the past. In June it was 97%, says BTG/FSB
- September 6, 2022
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According to the BTG/FSB survey, 34% of Brazilians think prices will increase in the next three months
In June of this year, 97% of Brazilians thought that the prices of products had increased a lot in the previous three months. Now, in September, 79% of people feel the same way, a decrease of 18 percentage points, according to the BTG/FSB survey released this Monday, 5th.
Those who think that prices have decreased went from 3% in June to 13% in September. Those who consider that there was no change are 6%.
The research is from the FSB Institute, commissioned by the BTG Pactual bank (from the same control group as EXAME). The FSB Institute interviewed 2,000 people by telephone between the 2nd and 4th of September. The research is registered with the TSE under the number BR-01786/2022. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points and the confidence interval is 95%.
This perception of Brazilians was measured in numbers by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The Extended National Consumer Price Index-15 (IPCA-15), considered prior to monthly inflation, was -0.73% in August. The index accumulated in 12 months was 9.60%, down from 11.39% in the IPCA-15 in July. In the eight months of the year through August, the accumulated change is 5.02%.
The August result represents deflation, when there is a negative variation in the index. It is the lowest inflation in the IPCA-15 since the beginning of the historical series of the preview, started in 1991, according to the IBGE.
This drop was driven by the decrease in fuel prices, after Congress approved a ceiling of 17% for charging the ICMS, a tax that the states are responsible for. Gasoline is down 16.80% in August, ethanol is down 10.78%, and diesel is down 0.56%.
The expectation of Brazilians in relation to prices for the next three months is the same since mid-August. Among those surveyed by the BTG/FSB survey, 34% think prices will increase, another 33% believe they will decrease, and 28% believe there will be no change.
“The beginning of a trajectory of economic recovery, with increased employment and more controlled inflation, has already been noticed by voters in recent weeks, but the improvement in perception has stagnated. And, in this period, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has not captured more support due to this scenario, which has led to a stability of the electoral race”, says Marcelo Tokarski, managing partner of the FSB Research Institute.
The BTG/FSB survey also tested presidential voting intent scenarios. In relation to the poll carried out last week, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) lost one percentage point, and is now at 42%. Bolsonaro has dropped two points, and is with 34%. Simone Tebet (MDB) recorded a 2-point increase and was left with 6%. Despite all these changes being within the margin of error, the senator has been growing for two consecutive rounds.
Lula leads among those who receive aid
Lula appears in the BTG/FSB poll with 58% of voting intentions among Auxílio Brasil beneficiaries. Bolsonaro has 23%. There was an expectation that the new value of Auxílio Brasil – from 400 to 600 reais – would change the voting intentions in favor of the president, especially in this segment of the electorate.
In the portion of voters who do not receive social benefits, 39% say they would vote for Lula, and 36% for Bolsonaro. Other candidates are mentioned by 17% of the electorate. Among those who do not receive aid, but know someone who does, 48% say they would vote for Lula in the first round, and 23% for Bolsonaro.